Cyber Max

This story reminds me of Baltimore a few years back, win it with defense and keep your offense on the field long enough with time of possession to score enough to win with a sub-par quarterback and excellent coaching. I am looking at this team hard but yet passed against them against an overrated Tampa Bay team this weekend and I am still kicking myself. Lets take a hard look at the NFC North leading Bears and see what’s up with these guys. Are they for real or not? Do they mirror the Ravens when the won it all with Trent Dilfer at quarterback? Read me with as I do some research here.

The defense stands out more than anything and it should, ranked #1 in total yards allowed and scoring defense, and #6 against the rush. With a steady stream of great DB’s that are opportunistic and talented, most teams have trouble throwing the ball because the Bears can stack the line against the run and play man coverage, which in the NFL is a huge advantage. Did I mention Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher at cornerback or Brian Urlacher at linebacker yet? Three of the best at their positions in the NFL, blazing speed, hard hitters and all leaders who make big plays when they count. This defense is disruptive and hard to gameplan around with so many players that make big plays, no team is going to light them up. Sound like a Ravens a few years back yet?

Lets look at the offense now, and it is not at all pretty except one glaring statistic, and that is 6th in the NFL at running the ball. They rank dead last in throwing it at 128 yards a game, and 28th in the NFL at scoring, yet they are 8-3 and clearly in demand of the NFC North, with Green Bay on tap in Chicago this weekend and the Pack are back on their heels here, cannot run it and Brett Farve throws interceptions around like none other right now, 19 to date. Good luck to the Pack, on the second leg of back to back road games off a loss to the Eagles.

Kyle Orton is not impressive at QB, but once again comparing these guys to the Ravens when they won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB, Dilfer was no Joe Montana either. The ONLY concern is if the defense lapses here for the Monsters of the Midway, because this offense is not geared to score points in bunches or play from behind with a QB with a rating of 63.2 and a completion rate of 54% and 12 picks to 9 touchdowns, however, they can run it, and will have Cedric Benson back for the Playoffs at running back to add depth. Once again, not a prolific offense, but once again, they do not have to be. Does this sound like the Ravens yet, when they won the Super Bowl? The answer is YES, the Bears are for real and still somewhat undervalued by oddsmakers in my opinion.

The remaining schedule is favorable as well, with Green Bay at home and the other home game against Atlanta in 2 weeks. You definitely want the Falcons on the road in the cold December air in Chicago, a huge advantage. Road games at Green Bay and surging Minnesota are very winnable, while a true test lies in Pittsburgh next Sunday. Assuming they can go 3-2 or 4-1 SU in those games. and get some homefield advantage through the first round of the Playoffs, the Bears end up at Seattle if it goes according to the plan for a possible NFC Championship. We all saw what happened to Seattle against the Giants defense on Sunday, the Bears have a real shot of landing an NFC Championship based on what I saw the it comes down to Seattle and Chicago. Are they better than the 1985 Bears you ask? No they are not, especially on offense, and the defense while good, lacks the skill of Buddy Ryan calling out the schemes. All in all, do not be surprised at this team going deep into the Playoffs, winning money on the unders and if the opportunity is there, laying some short numbers with them and raking in some cash.

Tony George is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Tony_George.htm

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With 96 College hoops game to handicap this past Saturday, I find myself as a pro handicapper sometimes overwhelmed by the vast numbers of teams and stats and scenarios to look at on Friday Night as I prepare to post advice for paying customers, who count on me to make them money everyday of the week with my wares. This is a huge responsibility and one I do not take lightly, so I thought I would break down my performance to make a valid point in terms of how to narrow it down to make it profitable for the novice sports bettors and wannabe handicappers who sometimes lose site of the forest because of all the trees.

Specialization is the key to success- I took at a look at my 3-1 ATS performance Saturday, and thought I would point it out in terms of how one can achieve a 75% win rate ATS with so many games. I narrow it down to 3 conferences I specialize in, and one situation I specialize in, small conference totals plays now 5-1 ATS on the year. Lets look at my lone loss, which was Texas Tech against Oklahoma getting +10.5 and they lost by 12. Close but no cigar on that one, I needed a lay-up to cover, but found that Texas Tech is one of the worst road teams in college hoops and in the Big 12, it is official. Being in the radio business both from a gaming show perspective and a straight up sports talk show perspective in Lincoln, NE, so I work with game announcers and even a national play by play announcer for ESPN Gameplan that covers the Big 12 and Mountain West on a weekly basis. This gives me some serious insight and information that cannot be found on the wire services, a huge advantage for me!

Small conferences and mid-majors, like the Missouri Valley for instance, is also a MAJOR key to my success. Look at this past Saturday, 3 unbeatens, all favorites, including Duke, all were favored on the road. These games get the lions share of public interest and public wagering, and have no doubts, Vegas oddsmakers know it. I won with small conference plays, where the lines moved very little if at all. It is not exciting stuff, but profitable. St. Mary’s CA laying 1 point on the road in a 22 point win, San Diego State laying 7 and winning by 27 and the Over in the NC Wilmington and George Mason game, winning the over by 13 points over the spread. The line moves, side and total in those games combined was less than 3 points TOTAL! Not exciting stuff, not exciting games on TV, but with a 3-0 sweep in those games, exciting when you go to the ticket window! The lines are soft and not as sharp and are less likely to have huge swings in them before tip-off than a game involving Duke, U Conn, North Carolina and teams that attract huge numbers of wagers and public attention.

I like to fly under the radar screen and narrow it down to a finite number of teams to handicap, say looking at 25-30 games max, and I’ll let the public and other cappers worry about attracting attention on marquee games. If you work a few conferences, like the Colonial or Horizon or Sun Belt as a weekly chore, you become very accustomed to home /road dichotomies in those conference’s, and win / loss scenarios and past history, of who plays who tough, no matter the situation. Knowing that St. Mary’s of California always is a tough team to beat at home, and remember in that conference, Gonzaga travels there. Just little things that are common knowledge to those who take the time to specialize in it! Look at San Diego State, off to their best conference record ever, and playing a team who has lost all road games by double digits, and yet they lay 7 and win by 27! The Aztecs lead the conference standings and have an outstanding forward that dominates in this conference, keep an eye on them.

Narrow it down, keep it simple and look at a few conference’s like the ones I mentioned, maybe the MAC conference, or a small mid-major and start doing your homework, it will pay dividends this Hoops season.

Tony George is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Tony_George.htm

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