May 2008

Gab Session Artest’s Bomb Ticks

It’ll only end in tears.

Sure, ESPN has wasted millions in on-air time pontificating (as only they can) about the benefits of acquiring troubled players. You’ve seen the highlights: Dennis Rodman kicking people, Terrell Owens doing driveway ab crunches, Darryl Strawberry wiping white powder from under his nose, Steve Howe returning to the Yankees after his thousandth drug suspension. You know what? For once, I agree with the Boys from Bristol. The Sacramento Kings dealing for Ron Artest is fool’s gold. The idea that Artest will suddenly be a good citizen in the league’s most boring city (all right, Salt Lake City and Orlando, I see you waving your hands) is silly. Oh, sure, he’ll make nice for a couple of months, and maybe even get all the way through the playoffs without being filmed shirtless and in flipflops, storming and screaming at an opposing team’s bus. But eventually, and soon, the Kings are going to wish they’d never heard his name.

I grant you, they didn’t give up a lot: Peja Stojakovic seems disinterested these days (though Indiana gets to test-drive him for a couple months, and if they don’t like him, they get a big slobbering heap of cap relief for letting him walk away). But my argument is that a sane NBA franchise shouldn’t have taken on Artest even for free. He’s simply a coddled, immature ass with personal problems that make Robert Downey Jr. look like the Dalai Lama. You’ll wake up with your tea and crumpets one morning, turn on the tube, and learn that Artest has barricaded himself in a Denny’s and refuses to come out unless Michael Jackson frees Blanket. Or you’ll be driving home from work, tune into sports radio, and hear a report that Artest’s in hot water because his latest rap song calls for the overthrow of the Brazilian government. Really, that’s just about the only fun left with guys like Artest and T.O.: the impossible spectacle of their inevitable detonation.

Of course, before they detonate themselves, they will most certainly detonate their teams. Best of luck, Sacramento.

What was your impression of the AFC and NFC title games? How did the betting public do on those games?

Greg Jorssen, BoDog: The two Jakes sure didn’t come to play last Sunday, now did they? Plummer lived up to the belief that he cannot get it done, and the Seahawks did an incredible job shutting down the Delhomme/Smith passing attack. The betting public did pretty well on the Steeler victory, as they rode the Pittsburgh bandwagon, however they didn’t fare very well on the Seahawks’ win. Bettors were high on Carolina, basing that on Seahawks strength in schedule vs. Carolina’s, and the Panther road record. I suppose they forgot about Seattle’s secret weapon: The Twelfth Man. Boy was that stadium rocking on Sunday afternoon! The one saving grace for the books this past weekend was that the final scores knocked out most teasers. Since both wins were blowouts, this helped turn what should have been a losing day for the house into a money-making day.

We’ll have another week to really dip into Super Bowl analysis, but what’s your first impression of the Pittsburgh/Seattle line? Not asking for a pick, more just your thoughts as an expert on how the line got where it is, whether you expect it to move, etc….

GJ, BoDog: The line opened up as expected and should finally settle down around Pittsburgh -4

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Preview of Some Key NBA Games for February 12 -15

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards, February 12: The 76ers are in second place in the Atlantic Division. Philadelphia is 9-10 SU and ATS in the last 19 games. The 76ers are 8-9 SU and 7-9-1 ATS in the last 17 road games. The 76ers are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS against the Wizards over the last two seasons. The 76ers are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road against the Wizards over the last two seasons. The Wizards are in second place in the Southeast Division. Washington is 16-12 in the last 28 games. The Wizards are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games.

Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat, February 12: The Pistons have a huge lead in the Central Division. Detroit is 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS in the last 18 games. The Pistons are 7-3 SU and 6-4 SU in the last 10 road games. The Pistons are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS against the Heat over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 1-0 SU ATS on the road against the Heat over the last two seasons. The Heat have a lead in the Southeast Division. Miami is 16-9 SU 14-11 and ATS in the last 25 games. The Heat is 11-4 SU and 8-7 ATS in the last 15 home games.

New Jersey Nets @ Detroit Pistons, February 14: The Nets have a slim lead in the Atlantic Division. New Jersey is 7-10 SU and 8-9 ATS in the last 17 games. The Nets are 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 road games. The Nets are 2-3 SU and ATS against the Pistons over the last two seasons. The Nets are 0-1 SU ATS on the road against the Pistons over the last two seasons. The Pistons have a huge lead in the Central Division. Detroit is 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS in the last 18 games. The Pistons are 8-1 SU and 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine home games.

San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers, February 15: The Spurs have a slim lead in the Southwest Division. San Antonio is 18-3 SU and 12-9 ATS in the last 21 games. The Spurs are 11-4 SU and 8-7 ATS in the last 15 road games. The Spurs are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS against the 76ers over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 1-0 SU and ATS on the road against the 76ers over the last two seasons. The 76ers are in second place in the Atlantic Division. Philadelphia is 9-10 SU and ATS in the last 19 games. The 76ers are 5-6 SU and ATS in the last 11 home games.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets, February 15: The Suns have a slim lead in the Pacific Division. Phoenix is 14-6 SU and 11-9 ATS in the last 20 games. The Suns are 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS in the last 14 road games. The Suns are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS against the Nuggets over the last two seasons. The Suns are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road against the Nuggets over the last two seasons. The Nuggets have a slim lead in the Northwest Division. Denver is 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS in the last 16 games. The Nuggets are 5-2 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven home games.

Ken Angland is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Ken_Angland.htm

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Are the Chicago Bears for Real

This story reminds me of Baltimore a few years back, win it with defense and keep your offense on the field long enough with time of possession to score enough to win with a sub-par quarterback and excellent coaching. I am looking at this team hard but yet passed against them against an overrated Tampa Bay team this weekend and I am still kicking myself. Lets take a hard look at the NFC North leading Bears and see what’s up with these guys. Are they for real or not? Do they mirror the Ravens when the won it all with Trent Dilfer at quarterback? Read me with as I do some research here.

The defense stands out more than anything and it should, ranked #1 in total yards allowed and scoring defense, and #6 against the rush. With a steady stream of great DB’s that are opportunistic and talented, most teams have trouble throwing the ball because the Bears can stack the line against the run and play man coverage, which in the NFL is a huge advantage. Did I mention Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher at cornerback or Brian Urlacher at linebacker yet? Three of the best at their positions in the NFL, blazing speed, hard hitters and all leaders who make big plays when they count. This defense is disruptive and hard to gameplan around with so many players that make big plays, no team is going to light them up. Sound like a Ravens a few years back yet?

Lets look at the offense now, and it is not at all pretty except one glaring statistic, and that is 6th in the NFL at running the ball. They rank dead last in throwing it at 128 yards a game, and 28th in the NFL at scoring, yet they are 8-3 and clearly in demand of the NFC North, with Green Bay on tap in Chicago this weekend and the Pack are back on their heels here, cannot run it and Brett Farve throws interceptions around like none other right now, 19 to date. Good luck to the Pack, on the second leg of back to back road games off a loss to the Eagles.

Kyle Orton is not impressive at QB, but once again comparing these guys to the Ravens when they won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB, Dilfer was no Joe Montana either. The ONLY concern is if the defense lapses here for the Monsters of the Midway, because this offense is not geared to score points in bunches or play from behind with a QB with a rating of 63.2 and a completion rate of 54% and 12 picks to 9 touchdowns, however, they can run it, and will have Cedric Benson back for the Playoffs at running back to add depth. Once again, not a prolific offense, but once again, they do not have to be. Does this sound like the Ravens yet, when they won the Super Bowl? The answer is YES, the Bears are for real and still somewhat undervalued by oddsmakers in my opinion.

The remaining schedule is favorable as well, with Green Bay at home and the other home game against Atlanta in 2 weeks. You definitely want the Falcons on the road in the cold December air in Chicago, a huge advantage. Road games at Green Bay and surging Minnesota are very winnable, while a true test lies in Pittsburgh next Sunday. Assuming they can go 3-2 or 4-1 SU in those games. and get some homefield advantage through the first round of the Playoffs, the Bears end up at Seattle if it goes according to the plan for a possible NFC Championship. We all saw what happened to Seattle against the Giants defense on Sunday, the Bears have a real shot of landing an NFC Championship based on what I saw the it comes down to Seattle and Chicago. Are they better than the 1985 Bears you ask? No they are not, especially on offense, and the defense while good, lacks the skill of Buddy Ryan calling out the schemes. All in all, do not be surprised at this team going deep into the Playoffs, winning money on the unders and if the opportunity is there, laying some short numbers with them and raking in some cash.

Tony George is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Tony_George.htm

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